Korean Energy Economic Review ISSN:1599-7057(Print) 에너지경제연구

Recently, the decoupling trend in power sales between the nationwide and Jeju was deepened due to the increase in the population and tourists in Jeju and the industrial structure of Jeju different from the main land. In this study, we propose a new model to forecast the long-term power sales in jeju. We model the long-run equilibrium relationship between the power sales in Jeju by usage and nationwide electricity sales to vary according to the relative value-added ratios by sector, value-added in Jeju over that in Korea. According to the new forecasting model, the electricity sales in Jeju will keep increasing by 2.5% per year by 2031 when we adopt the GRDP projection from Jeju Research Institute and the nationwide electricity sales forecasts from the 8th Basic Plan of Long-Term Electricity Supply and Demand. In addition, using the structural VAR model, we quantitatively analyse the 0.3% increase in Jeju's population in 2018 would result in increase of Jeju electricity sales by 0.36% - 0.72% from 2025 to 2031.