Korean Energy Economic Review ISSN:1599-7057(Print) 에너지경제연구

Using panel data consisting of 78 countries from 1971 to 2011, this paper investigates effects of volatility, ageing and urbanization on the energy consumption in transport sector. Empirical analysis results show that ageing leads transport energy consumption to decrease. Furthermore, urbanization has a threshold effect on the transport energy consumption, which is different according to urbanization level. Specially, urbanization reduces transport energy consumption only when the ratio of people living in cities is below 33.77%. We find that the volatility of transport energy consumption has a positive effect on transport energy consumption. Analysis result additionally confirms that aging can reduce the volatility of transport energy consumption. Therefore, when forecasting transport energy consumption and planing the policy for energy and greenhouse gas emission in transport sector, considering not only economic activity but also ageing, urbanization and volatility is necessary. Also, it is implied that ageing, urbanization and volatility stabilization are important driving factors of transport energy consumption saturation or decreasing state.