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2024 Vol.23, Issue 2 Preview Page

Research Article

Reconsideration of the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and income in Korea

한국의 이산화탄소 배출과 소득 관계에 대한 재고찰

SuKwan Jung1*
,
DooHwan Won2
정 수관1*
,
원 두환2
1Associate Professor, Changwon National University
2Professor, Pusan National University
1창원대학교 글로벌비즈니스학부 부교수
2부산대학교 경제학부 교수
*Corresponding Author
30 September 2024. pp. 61-84
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Abstract

In this study, we analyzed the dynamic relationship between income and carbon dioxide emissions per capita in Korea through various methods, including non-parametric methods, ARDL(autoregressive distributed lag) analysis, TY(Toda-Yammamoto) causality test, and Markov regime change model. It was found that the inverted U-shaped relationship between income and carbon dioxide emissions, or the EKC hypothesis, does not hold. A long-term equilibrium relationship exists between income and per capita carbon dioxide emissions, and an increase in income appears to have a positive effect on carbon dioxide emissions in the long term. Technological advancements have reduced carbon dioxide emissions. Income changes have a positive effect on changes in carbon dioxide emissions in the short term, but the short-term effect of income fluctuations is relatively smaller than the long-term effect of income. The impact of income in the regime with high carbon dioxide emissions was found to be relatively larger than in the regime with low carbon dioxide emissions. In the case of Korea, it can be confirmed that income has a significant effect on carbon dioxide emissions.

Keywords
Carbon dioxide emissions
Income
Nonparametric method
Markov regime change

본 연구는 비모수적 방법, ARDL(autoregressive distributed lag) 분석, TY(Toda-Yamamoto) 인과성 검정, 마코프 국면전환(Markov regime change) 모형을 이용하여 우리나라 소득수준과 1인당 이산화탄소배출량 간 동태적 관계를 분석하였다. 우리나라의 경우 소득과 이산화탄소배출량 간 역U자형의 관계 즉 EKC 가설이 성립하지 않는 것으로 나타났다. 반면, 소득수준과 이산화탄소배출량 간 장기균형관계가 존재하며 장기적으로 소득수준이 증가하면 이산화탄소배출량은 증가하고, 기술발전은 이산화탄소배출량을 감소시키는 것으로 나타났다. 단기적 소득변동은 이산화탄소 배출량 변동에 양의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났지만, 이러한 단기효과는 소득의 장기효과에 비해 상대적으로 작은 것으로 나타났다. 이산화탄소배출량이 많은 국면에서 소득수준이 이산화탄소배출량에 미치는 영향은 이산화탄소배출량이 작은 국면보다 상대적으로 더 크게 나타났다.

키워드
이산화탄소배출량
소득
ARDL
비모수적 추정
Markov 국면전환
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Information
  • Publisher :Korea Energy Economic Institute·Korea Resource Economics Association
  • Publisher(Ko) :에너지경제연구원·한국자원경제학회
  • Journal Title :Korean Energy Economic Review
  • Journal Title(Ko) :에너지경제연구
  • Volume : 23
  • No :2
  • Pages :61-84
  • Received Date : 2024-07-23
  • Revised Date : 2024-08-07
  • Accepted Date : 2024-08-07
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.22794/keer.2024.23.2.003
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