Korean Energy Economic Review ISSN:1599-7057(Print) 에너지경제연구

This study systematically analyzed six scenarios combining socioeconomic development and policy instrument pathways that could potentially impact energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions in the transportation sector. The socioeconomic development pathways are categorized into Sustainable-High growth (SEP1), Maintaining Trend-Moderate growth (SEP2), and Divided conflict-Low growth (SEP3) based on key socioeconomic variables such as population and human development, economy and lifestyle, technology, and institutions. The policy instrument pathways are divided into the Reference Policy Path (REF), where the current greenhouse gas reduction policy stance is maintained at a similar level, and the Maximum Reduction Policy Path (MAX), where technological innovation and demand policies are actively expanded. The scenario analysis utilized the transportation module of the Korea Energy Economics Institute’s (KEEI) bottom-up forecasting model, the System of Three E-Models (KEEI-STEM). The forecast results revealed that total energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions are significantly affected by the adoption of policy instruments. Under the SEP2 baseline policy pathway, energy demand in the transportation sector is projected to decrease by 46.2% between 2023 and 2050, while under the maximum reduction policy pathway, it is projected to decrease by 79.1%. However, under the maximum reduction policy pathway, energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions differ significantly depending on the socioeconomic development pathway. Emissions under SEP3 in 2050 were approximately 2.5 times higher than those under SEP1. This suggests that if proactive policies are implemented, future socioeconomic conditions can significantly impact the effectiveness of the policies. The analysis results of this study demonstrate that socioeconomic development pathways should be considered when establishing and implementing energy and greenhouse gas reduction policies from a long-term perspective.