All Issue

2025 Vol.24, Issue 2 Preview Page

Research Article

Impact of Climate Change on Residential Electricity Consumption in Gwangju Metropolitan City by 2050

기후변화가 2050년에 광주광역시의 주거용 전력 소비에 미치는 영향

Dmitriy Li1
,
Juhee Jeong2
,
Jeong Hwan Bae3*
이 드미트리1
,
정 주희2
,
배 정환3*
1Research Professor, Chonnam National University, Center for Regional Development (First Author)
2Research Professor, Chonnam National University, Center for Regional Development (Co-author)
3Professor, Department of Economics, Chonnam National University (Corresponding Author)
1전남대학교 지역개발연구소 연구교수 (주저자)
2전남대학교 지역개발연구소 연구교수 (공동저자)
3전남대학교 경제학부 교수 (교신저자)
*Corresponding Author
30 September 2025. pp. 181-222
PDF XML Citation
Abstract

This study examines the impact of climate change on residential electricity consumption, CO2 emissions, and associated carbon costs in Gwangju Metropolitan City, South Korea, under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP3-7.0) scenario. Using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, we analyze the long-term relationship between electricity consumption and key variables, including average temperature, its squared term, precipitation, the share of single-person households, cooling and heating degree days. The estimation results confirm a statistically significant U-shaped relationship between temperature and electricity consumption, with demographic shifts also emerging as major contributors to rising demand. In contrast, precipitation and degree days show no significant effects. Applying the model’s elasticities to SSP3-7.0 projections, we estimate that annual residential electricity consumption will increase by 4.8% in 2040 and 9.5% in 2050 relative to 2022, with the largest increases occurring in summer. Under the NGFS “Fragmented World” scenario, the annual carbon cost is projected to rise from 46 million KRW in 2023 to nearly 48.7 billion KRW by 2050. These findings highlight the urgent need for demand-side management and integrated climate-energy strategies to address the growing environmental and economic burdens of climate change in the residential energy sector.

Keywords
Climate change
Residential electricity consumption
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)
NGFS scenarios
ARDL model
carbon emissions

본 연구는 공유사회경제경로(SSP3-7.0) 시나리오 하에서 광주광역시의 기후변화가 가정용 전력소비, CO2 배출량, 그리고 탄소 비용에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 분석에는 자기회귀시차분포(ARDL) 모형을 활용하였으며, 평균기온, 기온의 제곱항, 강수량, 1인 가구 비율, 냉난방도일 등을 주요 변수로 설정하였다. 분석 결과, 기온과 전력 소비 간에는 통계적으로 유의한 U자형 관계가 확인되었으며, 인구 구조 변화 또한 전력 수요 증가의 주요 요인으로 나타났다. 반면, 강수량과 냉･난방도일은 유의미한 영향을 보이지 않았다. SSP3-7.0 시나리오에 따르면, 2040년과 2050년의 연간 가정용 전력소비는 2022년 대비 각각 4.8%, 9.5% 증가할 것으로 전망된다. 특히, 여름철 증가 폭이 두드러질 것으로 나타났다. NGFS의 ‘분절적 세계(Fragmented World)’ 시나리오에 따른 외생적 탄소가격 경로를 적용한 결과, 연간 탄소 비용은 2023년 4,600만 원에서 2050년 약 487억 원으로 증가할 것으로 추정되었다. 본 연구는 기후변화가 가정용 에너지 부문에 가져올 환경적･경제적 부담을 완화하기 위해 수요관리 강화 및 통합적인 기후-에너지 전략이 시급하다는 점을 시사한다.

키워드
기후변화
가정용 전력소비
공유사회경제경로
NGFS시나리오
자기회귀시차분포모형
탄소배출량
References
1

Bae, J. H., Jung, S. R. (2020). Analysis on impacts of renewable energy promotion on mitigation of air pollution. New & Renewable Energy, 16(3), 13-26.

10.7849/ksnre.2020.0013
2

Chen, M., Ban-Weiss, G. A., Sanders, K. T. (2018). The role of household level electricity data in improving estimates of the impacts of climate on building electricity use. Energy and Buildings, 180, 146-158.

10.1016/j.enbuild.2018.09.012
3

Cho, B. S., Min, C. H. (2024). The impact of climate change on domestic inflation [in Korean]. BOK Issue Note, No. 2024-18. Bank of Korea.

4

Choi, Y. R., Hwang, J. H., Kim, B. R., Yeon, J. I., Kim, J. W. (2024). Economic impacts of climate-change risk on major industries in the Busan region. Bank of Korea, Busan Head Office, Report No. 2024-01.

5

Desmet, K., Rossi-Hansberg, E. (2015). On the spatial economic impact of global warming. Journal of Urban Economics, 88, 16-37.

10.1016/j.jue.2015.04.004
6

Durmaz, T., Pommeret, A., Tastan, H., 2020. Estimation of residential electricity demand in Hong Kong under electricity charge subsidies. Energy Economics, 88, 104742.

10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104742
7

Guan, M., Ban-Weiss, G. A., Sanders, K. T. (2017). Predicting weather-dependent warm-season electricity consumption incorporating humidity data. Environmental Research Letters, 12(2), 024021.

10.1088/1748-9326/aa57a9
8

Hassler, U., Wolters, J. (2006). Autoregressive distributed lag models and cointegration. In: Hubler, O., Frohn, J. (eds) Journal of Modern Econometrics Analysis (pp. 57-72). Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg.

10.1007/3-540-32693-6_5
9

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (2023). Climate Change 2023: Global Impacts and Regional Adaptation Strategies. IPCC Report, pp.1-34.

10

Jang, M., Jeong, H. C., Kim, T., Suh, D. H., Joo, S.-K. (2021). Empirical analysis of the impact of COVID-19 social distancing on residential electricity consumption based on demographic characteristics and load shape. Energies, 14(22), 7523.

10.3390/en14227523
11

Jeong, J. H., Heo, I. (2015). Estimating the impact of temperature change on electricity consumption in Seoul. Journal of Climate Research, 10(2), 193-207.

10.14383/cri.2015.10.2.193
12

Kang, H., An, J., Kim, H., Ji, C., Hong, T., Lee, S. (2021). Changes in energy consumption according to building use type under COVID-19 pandemic in South Korea. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 148, 111294.

10.1016/j.rser.2021.11129434234624PMC8175493
13

Kim, H., Kim, I., Park, K.-J., Yoo, S.-H. (2015). The effect of temperature on the electricity demand: An empirical investigation. Journal of Energy Engineering. The Korean Society for Energy, 24(2), 167-173.

10.5855/ENERGY.2015.24.2.167
14

Kim, M. G. (2021). How much energy do single-person households in Seoul use? (Policy Report No. 325). The Seoul Institute.

15

Kim, Y.-L., Yoon, H.-K., Kim, J.-Y., Jeon, G.-Y., Hong, W.-H. (2011). A study on the energy consumption and greenhouse gas emission of the detached houses in Daegu. Journal of the Korean Housing Association, 22(2), 35-42.

10.6107/JKHA.2011.22.2.035
16

Korea Meteorological Administration. (2023). Gwangju Metropolitan City Climate Change Outlook Report 2023: Projections under four SSP scenarios. (Publication Registration No. 11-1360000-001804-01). Korea Meteorological Administration..

17

Krarti, M., Aldubyan, M. (2021). Review analysis of COVID-19 impact on electricity demand for residential buildings. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 143, 110888.

10.1016/j.rser.2021.11088836310544PMC9586839
18

Kripfganz, S., Schneider, D. C. (2018). ARDL: Estimating autoregressive distributed lag and equilibrium correction models [Conference paper]. In Proceedings of the 2018 London Stata Conference. Stata Users Group, London.

19

Lee Kang-Guk and Hong Won-Hwa (2010). A study on the sensitivity to temperature of electric power consumption in urban area. Journal of the Architectural Institute of Korea Planning & Design, 26(5), 373-382.

20

Lee, C.-C., Chiu,Y.-B. (2011). Electricity demand elasticities and temperature: Evidence from panel smooth transition regression with instrumental variable approach. Energy Economics, 33(5), 896-902.

10.1016/j.eneco.2011.05.009
21

Lee, H. W. (2024). The impact of population aging in South Korea on energy consumption: Focus on residential electricity usage [Master’s thesis, Seoul National University]. https://hdl.handle.net/10371/216310

22

Lee, W. Y. (2024). The Revenge of Climate: A 10-Year Analysis of Annual and Regional Patterns in Climate Disaster Damages [Policy brief]. Solutions for Our Climate; Office of Representative Mok, Y.-J. (National Assembly of Korea). Retrieved from the SFOC research page. https://forourclimate.org/ko/research/544

23

Li, L., Meinrenken, C. J., Modi, V., Culligan, P. J. (2021). Impacts of COVID-19 related stay-at-home restrictions on residential electricity use and implications for future grid stability. Energy and Buildings, 251, 111330.

10.1016/j.enbuild.2021.11133035431417PMC8995371
24

Lim, S. S. (2023). An analysis of the economic effects of the new and renewable energy transformation of thermal power generation. Environmental and Resource Economics Review, 32(2), 127-147.

10.15266/KEREA.2023.32.2.127
25

Ministry of Environment and Korea Environment Institute. (2022). Energy demand. In Estimating sectoral socio-economic damage costs from climate change (Ch. 4.7, pp. 166-173). Ministry of Environment; Korea Environment Institute.

26

Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS). (2024, April). NGFS scenarios data tutorial. Global Credit Data. https://globalcreditdata.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/2024-04-17_NGFS-Scenarios-Data-Tutorial.pdf

27

Newell, R. G., Prest, B. C., Sexton, S. E. (2021). The GDP-temperature relationship: Implications for climate change damages. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 108, 102-115.

10.1016/j.jeem.2021.102445
28

Park, J., Seo, B. (2019). Nonlinear impact of temperature change on electricity demand: Estimation and prediction using partial linear Model. The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics, 32(5), 703-720.

29

Pesaran, M., Shin, H. Y., Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.

10.1002/jae.616
30

Seo, Y.-K., Kim, J.-Y., Hong, W.-H. (2009). An analysis on the characteristics of energy and water consumption in urban rental apartment. Journal of the Korean Housing Association, 20(6), 39-46.

31

Tol, R. S. (2019). A social cost of carbon for (almost) every country. Energy Economics, 83, 555-567.

10.1016/j.eneco.2019.07.006
32

Tol, R. S. (2024). A meta-analysis of the total economic impact of climate change. Energy policy, 185, 113922.

10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113922
33

Yoo, D., Won, D. H. (2022). A study on the determinants of domestic households electricity consumption in summer. Asia-Pacific Journal of Business & Commerce, 14(3), 27-53.

10.35183/ajbc.2022.11.14.3.27
Information
  • Publisher :Korea Energy Economic Institute·Korea Resource Economics Association
  • Publisher(Ko) :에너지경제연구원·한국자원경제학회
  • Journal Title :Korean Energy Economic Review
  • Journal Title(Ko) :에너지경제연구
  • Volume : 24
  • No :2
  • Pages :181-222
  • Received Date : 2025-04-18
  • Revised Date : 2025-07-25
  • Accepted Date : 2025-07-29
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.22794/keer.2025.24.2.006
Journal Informaiton Korean Energy Economic Review Korean Energy Economic Review
Online Submission
  • NRF
  • KISTI Current Status
  • KISTI Cited-by
  • ccl
Journal Informaiton Journal Informaiton - close