Analysis of price determinant factors in the Korean renewable energy certificate (REC) spot market

Dmitriy Li; Thi Hong Nhung Nguyen; Jeong Hwan Bae

doi:10.22794/keer.2023.22.2.002

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2023 Vol.22, Issue 2 Preview Page Next Page

Research Article

Analysis of price determinant factors in the Korean renewable energy certificate (REC) spot market 재생가능인증서 현물시장 가격 결정요인 분석

30 September 2023. pp. 25-50

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Abstract

Since 2012, Korean government has implemented the renewable portfolio standard (RPS) program to promote renewable electricity production. Renewable energy certificate (REC) market has been operated under the RPS program to provide flexibility for mandatory electricity power companies when they cannot fill the gap between their own renewable electricity production and required renewable electricity by the RPS. However, high fluctuation of the REC spot market price has affected negatively investment on renewable power plants. In this context, this study investigates main factors that significantly affect the REC spot market prices based on the monthly data between 2012 and 2021 in Korea by using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) with error correction (EC) estimation method. We found that the accumulated excessive supply of RECs and the volume of RECs sold in the REC spot market are main determinants that affect the REC spot market price. In addition, revision of fixed price-long term contract system and higher REC weights have negative impact on REC spot market prices.

Keywords

renewable portfolio standard (RPS)

Renewable energy certificate (REC)

determinants of REC spot market price

Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) with error correction (EC)

한국은 2012년부터 발전부문 재생전력 공급 확대를 위해 재생에너지의무화제도를 시행해 오고 있다. 재생에너지 인증서 시장은 재생에너지 공급의무를 지는 발전회사가 의무량을 채우지 못하는 경우 유연성을 제공하기 위해 운영되고 있다. 그러나 재생에너지 인증서 시장가격의 변동성이 커지면서 재생가능 발전소에 대한 투자 결정에 부정적 영향을 미쳐왔다. 이에 본 연구는 2012~2021년의 월간 재생에너지 인증서 현물시장 가격에 어떤 요인이 영향을 미치는지를 분석하였다. 오차상관을 감안한 자기회귀분포시차모형을 이용하여 추정한 결과, 재생에너지 인증서 누적초과공급량과 재생에너지 인증서 현물시장에 대한 계약체결량, RPS 관련 정책 변화가 주요 요인임을 발견하였다. 정책적 시사점에서 이러한 재생에너지 인증서 현물시장에서의 가격 변동성을 완화하기 위한 방안들을 제시하였다.

키워드

재생에너지의무화(RPS)

재생에너지인증서(REC)

재생에너지 인증서 현물시장 가격

오차상관을 감안한 자기회귀분포시차모형(ARDL_EC)

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Information

Publisher :Korea Energy Economic Institute·Korea Resource Economics Association
Publisher(Ko) :에너지경제연구원·한국자원경제학회
Journal Title :Korean Energy Economic Review
Journal Title(Ko) :에너지경제연구
Volume : 22
No :2
Pages :25-50
Received Date : 2023-02-26
Revised Date : 2023-05-26
Accepted Date : 2023-05-31
DOI :https://doi.org/10.22794/keer.2023.22.2.002

Korean Energy Economic Review ISSN:1599-7057(Print) 에너지경제연구

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